Dangote Refinery Petrol Exports Disrupt European Market – OPEC

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported that increased petrol production from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is intensifying pressure on Europe’s already sluggish fuel market.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC highlighted that the Dangote Refinery, which began exporting petrol in December 2024, has contributed to an oversupply situation in the European fuel market.

The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub, already facing high petrol inventories amid weak seasonal demand, has seen this trend worsen due to the refinery’s growing output.

OPEC stated, “The ongoing recovery in gasoline refinery output levels will likely exacerbate the already bearish market sentiment.

“Moreover, the ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its first gasoline exports to the international market likely weigh further on the European gasoline market.

“Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets which will call for new destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes going forward.”

The Dangote Refinery, a landmark achievement for Nigeria’s oil sector, began producing diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024, with petrol production starting nine months later. Its inaugural petrol export shipment was delivered to Cameroon on 11 December 2024.

As Nigeria transitions from being a major fuel importer to an emerging exporter, global petrol markets are likely to undergo notable changes. This shift will require reconfigurations to accommodate the increased supply now entering international trade.